State of the Yield Curve as of 9/24/22

Here is a quick tweet thread I put together regarding the state of the yield curve in various developed countries throughout the world.

The yield curve inversions aren’t solely confined to the developed world either. In Brazil, the entire curve, with the exception of the 5s, is trading at a higher yield than the 10s (the 10s are the longest duration bond offered by the Brazilian government). Also of note is the state of the forex market where the US dollar is at 20 and 35 year highs against the euro and the pound. Additionally, both India and Japan, two of the largest countries in terms of GDP, are both burining through their forex reserves to try and prop up their embattled currencies.

Everything going on is pointing toward the exact opposite of inflation (an increase in the supply of currency) and toward deflation. The high costs associated with supply chain disruptions (which only occurred because of the Covid hysterics among us) are only making the dollar funding problems more acute.

Originally published at on September 24, 2022.



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